828
FXUS63 KBIS 161758
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, INCLUDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW THIS
MORNING. QUITE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS,
AS A SCT-BKN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENTLY, HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION JET PLACEMENT CONTRIBUTING TO AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SOUTH THROUGH
MY SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECT
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST SUNRISE, THEN SHOULD
DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOLAR ENERGY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO OUR WEST EXPANDING EASTWARD. OUR COLD AIRMASS IS
DISPLACED EAST TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR TOMORROW AS THIS
OCCURS, WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING QUICKLY BOTH TODAY INTO
TUESDAY (TUE HIGHS IN THE 30S EAST AND 50S WEST). RIDGE RIDER
S/WV WILL BRING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE. GIVEN MID LEVEL WAA AND LIKELY SUB-FREEZING
SFC TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/TUE AM, STILL EXPECTING MIXED
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
INITIALLY SNOW, THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN,
RAIN, OR SLEET AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN WEST TO EAST AS THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT OVERRUNS SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AND NEAR SFC AIR
TEMPERATURES. THE FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO BRING A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
INCLUDING THE TUE AM COMMUTE, UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM AND/OR OUR
STRONG MID-MARCH SOLAR ENERGY TAKES OVER.
EARLIER SHIFTS MENTIONED THE FREEZING RAIN/ICE IN THE HWO, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. THIS COULD
STILL BE A SNEAKY HIGHER-IMPACT EVENT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW FALLS OVER OUR EAST (ESPECIALLY THE TURTLE MTN REGION)
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIQUID, AND/OR HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN
ACTUALLY OCCURS BEFORE ANY ICE MELTS DURING THE DAY. THUS,
ELEVATED MESSAGING REMAINS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING HEADLINES. STAY
TUNED.
THEREAFTER, THE LARGE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED BY
ENSEMBLES TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND A CONTINUED
STRONG WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK
(HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THU AND FRI, WITH 40S
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS). THE UPPER RIDGE IS THEN FAVORED TO
DEAMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND, TRENDING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND
PERHAPS SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN TO LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO AN INCH AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HUNDRETH OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ENDING AROUND
SUNRISE. FREEZING RAIN IF FALLEN WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE WEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON/NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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