256
FXUS63 KBIS 161917
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
217 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG WARMING TREND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, INCLUDING A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER TEENS FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING FORTH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A SHORT BURST OF FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT OUT WEST AS A WARM FRONT OVER RIDES THE COLDER
AIRMASS. CAMS HAVE SLIGHTLY TRENDED ON THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER SNOW IS FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESS. IF SNOW FALLS FIRST THIS COULD REDUCE THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITY FOR 0.05 OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN IS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT NEAR THE HWY 85 CORRIDOR.
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IT
WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SUN RISING INCREASING THE MELTING
POTENTIAL OF ANY FREEZING RAIN. MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE
OUT WEST IF MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW DOES NOT FALL FIRST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
A CHANCE FOR 2-3 INCHES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE OUT WEST SO
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE 50S OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP ACROSS THE STATE STARTING WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE
STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE BEING
ABOVE 70 AND NEAR 80 FOR KBIS. THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE IS FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 60 FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN TO LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO AN INCH AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HUNDRETH OF
AN INCH. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ENDING AROUND
SUNRISE. FREEZING RAIN IF FALLEN WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE WEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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