976
FXUS63 KBIS 170037
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
737 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM (WEST) TO HIGH (CENTRAL AND EAST) CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY, WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
DURATION AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT COULD FALL AFTER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE SNOW OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN. ANOTHER ADDED LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY
WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MELT ANY ICE THAT DOES
ACCUMULATE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND CONSIDER WHETHER ANY ENHANCED
MESSAGING IS NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER TEENS FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING FORTH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A SHORT BURST OF FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT OUT WEST AS A WARM FRONT OVER RIDES THE COLDER
AIRMASS. CAMS HAVE SLIGHTLY TRENDED ON THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER SNOW IS FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESS. IF SNOW FALLS FIRST THIS COULD REDUCE THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITY FOR 0.05 OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN IS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT NEAR THE HWY 85 CORRIDOR.
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IT
WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SUN RISING INCREASING THE MELTING
POTENTIAL OF ANY FREEZING RAIN. MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE
OUT WEST IF MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW DOES NOT FALL FIRST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
A CHANCE FOR 2-3 INCHES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE OUT WEST SO
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE 50S OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP ACROSS THE STATE STARTING
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE BEING ABOVE 70 AND NEAR 80 FOR KBIS. THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A NORTH-
TO-SOUTH BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW
MAY CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING, BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS. IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP, SO HAVE JUST
INCLUDED PROB30 MENTIONS AT KDIK AND KXWA.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
MORNING AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE QUICKER TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAN WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KJMS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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