780
FXUS63 KBIS 170355
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1055 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM (WEST) TO HIGH (CENTRAL AND EAST) CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SNOW MAY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY, WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE 00Z GUIDANCE THAT HAS ARRIVED THUS FAR REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH OUR FORECAST THINKING FOR PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOLLOWED BY MEDIUM CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN PRODUCING A
GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
ADDRESS THE CONCERNS FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION AND
SEVERITY OF FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM THAT MAY NEED ATTENTION IS
STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER FRESH SNOWFALL IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THAT COULD PRODUCE IMPACTFUL BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR BLOWING SNOW MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
VISIBILITY ONE HALF MILE OR LESS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
ROUGHLY EQUIVALENT WITH LOW-END ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS. SO IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A MULTI-FACETED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS. AND WHILE THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ON THEIR OWN DO
NOT MEET TRADITIONAL ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE SNOW ITSELF COULD
MAKE ROADWAYS VERY SLICK, REGARDLESS OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION OR
DRIFTING OF SNOW. BUT AGAIN, THE DURATION OF IMPACTS MAY BE
LIMITED AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FROM
EARLY TO MID MORNING IN THE WEST TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 736 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE
DURATION AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT COULD FALL AFTER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE SNOW OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN. ANOTHER ADDED LAYER OF UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY
WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MELT ANY ICE THAT DOES
ACCUMULATE. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE INCOMING MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND CONSIDER WHETHER ANY ENHANCED
MESSAGING IS NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH UPPER TEENS FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE TONIGHT BRINGING FORTH WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DOES HAVE FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A SHORT BURST OF FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT OUT WEST AS A WARM FRONT OVER RIDES THE COLDER
AIRMASS. CAMS HAVE SLIGHTLY TRENDED ON THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING
RAIN. HOWEVER SNOW IS FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESS. IF SNOW FALLS FIRST THIS COULD REDUCE THE IMPACTS OF
FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITY FOR 0.05 OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN IS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT NEAR THE HWY 85 CORRIDOR.
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IT
WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH THE SUN RISING INCREASING THE MELTING
POTENTIAL OF ANY FREEZING RAIN. MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE
OUT WEST IF MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW DOES NOT FALL FIRST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH
A CHANCE FOR 2-3 INCHES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE OUT WEST SO
MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE 50S OUT WEST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP ACROSS THE STATE STARTING
WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE BEING ABOVE 70 AND NEAR 80 FOR KBIS. THE NBM 25TH
PERCENTILE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 60 FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT,
WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15
KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH BAND
OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THEN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE SNOW MAY CHANGE
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING, BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS. IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP, SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED PROB30
MENTIONS AT KDIK AND KXWA.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY
MORNING AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE QUICKER TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAN WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT,
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KJMS AND
SURROUNDING AREAS, WHERE BLOWING SNOW COULD DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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