894
FXUS63 KBIS 171109
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SNOW
MAY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE ENDING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FREQUENTLY IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND
EVEN SOME LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
FINISH OUT THE WORKWEEK.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AFTER TUESDAY, WITH LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE LINE OF SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND IS CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED. SO FAR, THE LOWEST OBSERVED VISIBILITY IS AROUND 3
MILES. HOWEVER, AS THE BAND INTENSIFIES, VISIBILITY MAY DROP
DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
BEHIND THE MAIN SNOW LINE, SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE REMAINS POSSIBLE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY, WHICH WILL FORCE A LINE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
IT. SO FAR, PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL ND, THOUGH SO FAR
THE ONLY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR THE MOST
PART, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. HOWEVER, FREEZING RAIN, OR PERHAPS A BIT OF SLEET, IS
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE.
ONE THING OF INTEREST IS THE ANALYZED MAX WET BULB TEMPERATURES
ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. SO FAR, IT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY 2
DEGREES OR LESS WITHIN THE HIGHEST RADAR ECHOES. HENCE WHY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN MOSTLY SNOW FALL TO THIS POINT. TO FURTHER
ILLUSTRATE THIS POINT, MOST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
ISSUE IN MAINTAINING SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ. RATHER, THERE
IS A WARM NOSE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT MAY ALLOW FROZEN
HYDROMETEORS TO MELT BEFORE HITTING A FROZEN SURFACE WITHOUT
ENOUGH VERY NEAR SURFACE COLD AIR ALOFT TO REFREEZE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE AND
AIR TEMPERATURE IN THAT WARM NOSE THAT MAY HELP AT LEAST LIMIT
THE DURATION OF ANY FREEZING RAIN.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE HI-RES MODELS IN REGARD TO FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL. THE RAP AND ARW PRODUCE MORE IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN
ON THE BACKSIDE (MAINLY BETWEEN HWY 85 AND HWY 83) CLOSER TO
SUNRISE AND UNTIL MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE HRRR GOES WITH A
LOWER OVERALL PRECIPITATION SOLUTION AND MOSTLY SNOW, WHILE THE
NAM AND NAMNEST ARE COLDER AND IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY SNOW WITH
SLEET ON THE BACKSIDE. THE FRAM ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO PRODUCES A
TRANSITORY LINE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
83.
IN REGARD TO SNOWFALL, 1 TO 3 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS GENERALLY FURTHER
EAST AND THE LOWEST FURTHER WEST. LESS THAN AN INCH IS GENERALLY
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35
MPH COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY,
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS, ISSUED ANOTHER SPS IN
WESTERN ND FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL UNTIL MID-
MORNING. ISSUED A SECOND SPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAT RELATES TO THE DAY TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOULD
ANY FURTHER HEADLINES BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES MORE PREVALENT THIS MORNING.
ONCE ANY PRECIPITATION ENDS TODAY, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RAPIDLY CLIMB WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW
60S TO LOW 70S BY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ND, WHICH ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH A SHARP GRADIENT FROM AROUND 45 TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. A COOLING TREND WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS THEN
FAVORED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SNOW WILL CONTINUE PASSING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN ON THE BACK END. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO ON TAP TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND BECOMING
WESTERLY AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE. LLWS IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ND
THIS MORNING, THOUGH WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH BY NOON. POCKETS OF
LLWS MAY RETURN THIS EVENING MAINLY TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page