524
FXUS63 KBIS 171931
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
231 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FREQUENTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS, AND 60S TO 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A COOLING TREND RETURNING FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SNOW HAS MOVED OFF INTO MINNESOTA BRINGING FORTH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL HALF AND THE 50S OUT
WEST AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS ALL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WARM
DOWN SLOPING WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S OUT WEST.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK QUICKLY EATING
AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL BE ACCELERATED BY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE 60S AND 70S IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT KBIS IS ABOVE 65 DEGREE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DOWN TO 49 DEGREES AS A SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE RANGES FROM 73 THURSDAY, 78 FRIDAY, AND 76
SATURDAY. THUS THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARM WEATHER
THIS WEEK. SATURDAY BECOMES MORE OF THE QUESTION, IS THE SYSTEM
GOING TO ROLE THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER OR LATER. THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE STATE AND COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. KJMS SNOW WILL BE WRAPPING UP SOON WITH
CLEARING SKIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY LLWS AT
KDIK WITH SOME LINGERING LLWS AT KJMS THIS AREA THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUST FORECAST TO FALL OFF THIS
EVENING AND RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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