488
FXUS63 KBIS 180346
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1046 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA,
AND 50S TO 70S ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. DID
ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY MORNING. CAN
ALREADY SEE SOME FOG TRYING TO DEVELOP IN TOWNER COUNTY, AND
SURROUNDING AREAS HAVE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. CAMS ALSO INDICATE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THEIR VISIBILITY FIELDS. SKEPTICAL THAT THIS WILL
END UP BEING A DENSE FOG EVENT THOUGH DUE TO THE BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME WITH LOW RH DIRECTLY ABOVE THE NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A STREAK OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN THAT HAD FORMED FROM
AROUND MINOT TO ELLENDALE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HAS
MOSTLY DISSIPATED. DESPITE HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITY AT TIMES,
WEBCAMS CONSISTENTLY SHOWED ONLY A FEW RAINDROPS, AND IMAGERY OF
THE SKYLINE DEPICTED VIRGA. A FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE
BEEN SIMULATING A FEW RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, BUT
FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED.
THEREFORE, WILL NOT ADD A MENTION OF THIS TO ANY OTHER FORECAST
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
SNOW HAS MOVED OFF INTO MINNESOTA BRINGING FORTH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL HALF AND THE 50S OUT
WEST AS WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS ALL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WARM
DOWN SLOPING WINDS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S OUT WEST.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK QUICKLY EATING
AWAY AT THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL BE ACCELERATED BY HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AND ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH HIGHS RANGING
IN THE 50S ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE 60S AND 70S IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT KBIS IS ABOVE 65 DEGREE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DOWN TO 49 DEGREES AS A SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE RANGES FROM 73 THURSDAY, 78 FRIDAY, AND 76
SATURDAY. THUS THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WARM WEATHER
THIS WEEK. SATURDAY BECOMES MORE OF THE QUESTION, IS THE SYSTEM
GOING TO ROLE THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER OR LATER. THE SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE STATE AND COOLER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO DROP DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MAINLY FROM AROUND KMOT TO KJMS, BUT NO
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE
WESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10-20 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA COULD
STILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE THIS EVENING,
WHEREVER SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT WESTERLY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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