328
FXUS63 KBIS 181144
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA,
AND 50S TO 70S ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.
- FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
83.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
EXPANDED PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FAR
EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PRETTY SHARP
THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 30S FROM EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE NORTH/SOUTH BORDERS OF THE JAMES RIVER AND
CHEYENNE RIVER VALLEYS. FOG IS MOSTLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS,
THOUGH ALSO REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
WHERE IT TOO REMAINS COOLER. PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
ELSEWHERE BY MID-MORNING. IN ADDITION, ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A LOSS OF MUCH OF
THE REMAINING SNOWPACK AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL STRATUS COULD HELP INHIBIT
FOG FORMATION AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE,
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AS A WEST CONUS
RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD. DESPITE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS, WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD BRING A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS, BREEZY MAINLY IN WESTERN ND, ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND THURSDAY AS A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE
LOWS PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S AND 60 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 70S. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THINGS WILL REMAIN COOLER AND IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, A TROUGH LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHICH
BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE NOTEWORTHY AT THIS TIME IS THE
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TO SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FAVORED TO START THE
NEXT WORKWEEK. WHILE THE NBM KEEPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DRY,
THERE ARE HINTS THAT LOW MENTIONABLE POPS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
FORECAST AT SOME POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
PATCHY FOG REMAINS PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHICH
HAS CAUSED JAMESTOWN TO BRIEFLY TANK AS LOW AS 1/2 SM THIS
MORNING. AS WARMER AIR SLIDES EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, KJMS
SHOULD BECOME AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ONCE ANY FOG
DISSIPATES, ALL OF WESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL ND SHOULD BECOME VFR
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPS TONIGHT, THOUGH MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY INHIBIT IT TO
SOME EXTENT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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