641
FXUS63 KBIS 181945
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA, AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 83.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UPSTREAM OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
AND RAISING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN WARMING UP NICELY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR NORTH CENTRAL. WE ARE CARRYING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING AS AN
EMBEDDED WAVE DRIFTS THROUGH, ALTHOUGH RECENT CAMS RUNS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL. COULD BE A WINTRY MIX DEPENDING ON
TIMING, BUT WITH OVERALL LOW PROBABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IMPACT FROM THIS.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS FOR FOG POTENTIAL CENTRAL AND EAST,
WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
CONTINUED SNOWMELT. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST DOES FOG EXTEND
BUT DID EXPAND PATCHY FOG MENTION TO INCLUDE THE HIGHWAY 83 AND
BISMARCK/MANDAN CORRIDOR, BUT CERTAINLY MORE CONFIDENCE FURTHER TO
THE EAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PERSISTS, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING THIS DAY
ALTHOUGH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS HAS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR AREAS ALONG, SOUTH,
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING
HIGHS AT DICKINSON (71), BISMARCK (70), AND WILLISTON (70). MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
WE DID OPT TO BLEND DOWN FORECAST DEW POINTS ON THURSDAY WITH SOME
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH LOWERED MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS, COMBINED WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS (AND A TENDENCY TO
OVERPERFORM TEMPERATURES AND OVERMIX), PROMPTED THE MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SLOPE, BOWMAN,
HETTINGER, AND ADAMS COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD.
THE PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TRIES TO SLIDE OVER BUT ALSO FLATTENS, WITH SIMILAR HIGHS TO
THURSDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE THEN STARTS TO BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SKEW TOWARDS THE COLD SIDE, AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. RIGHT NOW
CLUSTERS ARE SPLIT GENERALLY 50/50 ON AN EARLY IN THE DAY VS LATE IN
THE DAY SOLUTION, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FAVORING THE LATE DAY
SCENARIO, KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE LONGER. BLENDED POPS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED SOME WITH THE LATEST NBM RUN, ALTHOUGH ARE
STILL ONLY GENERALLY 20 TO 35 PERCENT, AND PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONSENSUS IN THE FORECAST INCREASES ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BEING BACK IN THE 30S AND 40S. FLOW IS
FAVORED TO BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, WITH UP AND DOWN
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY HIGH IMPACT WIND
DAYS, A THOUGHT ECHOED BY NO SIGNIFICANT HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
LATEST ECMWF EFI OUTPUT. THE CPC 8-14 DAY HAZARD OUTLOOK DOES
HIGHLIGHT A MODERATE RISK OF HIGH WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS
SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY AND BECOMING BREEZY AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. DID INCLUDE LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS AT
KJMS/KMOT WITH THIS UPDATE, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD
AND DENSE FOG WILL END UP. CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS IMPROVE
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY
MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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