719
FXUS63 KBIS 230001
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
701 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- BREEZY WINDS TO BE FOUND AT TIMES THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
ADJUSTED POPS AND WENT COVERAGE FOR SHOWER WORDING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EMBEDDED WAVE CONTINUES TO BRING ISOLATED RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THEN
DIMINISH AS FORCING DECREASES. CLOUDS COVER WILL ALSO DECREASE
TONIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH
THEN TAKES OVER FOR TONIGHT, HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES AND BRING
LIGHT WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
WINDS AT NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE NORTH. EXITING
HIGH THEN BRINGS A STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND ON MONDAY, AND WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST AREAS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EAST ALONG A WEAK
WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THEN LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS COOL AND IN THE 20S. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT ON TUESDAY
BRINGING SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE 30S FAR NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES
SHAPE TUESDAY NIGHT, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP IN THE NORTH
BRINGING CHANCES FOR MAINLY SNOW. LOWS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH 30S IN THE SOUTH AWAY FROM
THIS BOUNDARY.
TODAY'S GUIDANCE DELAYED SLIGHTLY THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY MENTIONED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT STALLS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY, WHILE MILD AND
BREEZY ZONAL FLOW BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE NORTH ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY,
WHILE OTHER AREAS SEE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. ECMWF EFI NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A STRONG WIND
SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY. IF THIS CHANGES AND MIN RH
VALUES LOWER, THEN PERHAPS SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SURFACE HIGH IN CANADA MOVES THE MENTIONED
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S, TO SOME LOWER 40S SOUTH.
COOL CONDITIONS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. NBM SPREADS THEN SHOW A WARMING TREND
RETURNING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
SCT-BKN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS (KXWA, KDIK, AND KMOT) WILL
SEE WINDS SWITCHING TO MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...NH
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