792
FXUS63 KBIS 241945
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, FALLING AS MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW,
RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. A
LIGHT GLAZE IS POSSIBLE.
- INTERMITTENT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
NEAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TURNING INCREASINGLY ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS THE PREVAILING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS IS ERODED BY AN IMPULSE EJECTING OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
LOW OFF THE COAST OF ALASKA. WITH CLOUD COVER FOUND OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL, WHERE CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, A 250MB JETSTREAK IS ADVERTISED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH BY THE 12Z HREF, PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. WITH A PSEUDO-STATIONARY FROM
DRAPED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PROGGED TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERCUT
BY COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. WITH THIS, PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE IN THE
FAR NORTH, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THIS
PERIOD REVEALING A SOMEWHAT SATURATED LAYER OVER THIS AREA,
INDICATING THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. BETWEEN
THIS, AND "WARM" SUB SURFACE CONDITIONS (WITH NDAWN 4INCH BARE
SOIL TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING EARLIER THIS
MORNING), ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. MOSTLY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF (NON-
ACCUMULATING) SNOW IS MAINLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH,
AHEAD OF THE PSEUDO-STATIONARY FRONT.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END BY EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE INCITING 250MB JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED TO DIFFUSE ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 TO 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO SEE NEAR ADVISORY WINDS, NORTHWEST
AROUND 25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH, AS A 850MB JET DEVELOPS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, WHERE THE GREATEST
OVERLAP OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FOUND. BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON, EARLY EVENING PERIOD, THE MAIN IMPULSE OFF
OF THE PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS,
PICKING UP THE PSEUDO- STATIONARY FRONT AS A COLD FRONT AND
MOVING TO SOUTHWARD. WITH THIS, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION (30 TO 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 200. WHILE INITIALLY FALLING AS RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, A GENERAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DRAGGED FURTHER
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA, LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. ALSO OF NOTE, CAMS ARE
ADVERTISING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAYS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT, NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY, REMAINING GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS CAA
INCREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A REBOUNDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL AGAIN PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY PEAKING AS HIGH AS THE
LOWER 70S. WITH THIS, VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 TO
25 PERCENT. WHILE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE COTEAU.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE FOUND AT ALL TERMINALS TO BEGIN
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, SCATTERED
PRECPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WHILE MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN, SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. HAVE ADDED PROB30 -RA AT KXWA AND
KMOT WITH THIS UPDATE. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL, WITH MELTING SNOWPACK PERSISTS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTIONS AT ANY GIVE TERMINAL AT THIS
TIME. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHEAR IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL,
INCLUDING AT KMOT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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