144
FXUS63 KBIS 250352
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1052 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, QUICKLY FALLING
TO BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THURSDAY MORNING.
- INTERMITTENT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SITES IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAVE OCCASIONALLY
REPORTED LIGHT RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS, AND RECENT RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY ACROSS DANIELS AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA. LIGHT RAIN WILL
LIKELY BEGIN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR FROM WILLISTON TO
CROSBY BETWEEN 1130 PM AND 1230 AM CDT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. RECENT CAMS
WOULD INDICATE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT, WITH STILL ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS TO
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED AT MOST AS ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS WILL BE FIGHTING LOW RH IN THE 900-800
MB LAYER. THERE IS ALSO NOW A SIGNAL FOR LIGHT RAIN IN SOME CAMS
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER OVERNIGHT, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK EVEN DRIER DOWN THERE, SO WILL NOT ADD THIS TO
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
NEAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TURNING INCREASINGLY ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS THE PREVAILING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS IS ERODED BY AN IMPULSE EJECTING OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
LOW OFF THE COAST OF ALASKA. WITH CLOUD COVER FOUND OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA, SLIGHTLY COOLER YET STILL SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. IN SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL, WHERE CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, A 250MB JETSTREAK IS ADVERTISED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH BY THE 12Z HREF, PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. WITH A PSEUDO-STATIONARY FROM
DRAPED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PROGGED TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WARMER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERCUT
BY COOLING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. WITH THIS, PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE IN THE
FAR NORTH, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING THIS
PERIOD REVEALING A SOMEWHAT SATURATED LAYER OVER THIS AREA,
INDICATING THAT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. BETWEEN
THIS, AND "WARM" SUB SURFACE CONDITIONS (WITH NDAWN 4INCH BARE
SOIL TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING EARLIER THIS
MORNING), ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH A
LIGHT GLAZE UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. MOSTLY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF (NON-
ACCUMULATING) SNOW IS MAINLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH,
AHEAD OF THE PSEUDO-STATIONARY FRONT.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END BY EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE INCITING 250MB JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ARE EXPECTED TO DIFFUSE ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS LOW AS 20 TO 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, NORTHWESTERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO SEE NEAR ADVISORY WINDS, NORTHWEST
AROUND 25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH, AS A 850MB JET DEVELOPS
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, WHERE THE GREATEST
OVERLAP OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FOUND. BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON, EARLY EVENING PERIOD, THE MAIN IMPULSE OFF
OF THE PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS,
PICKING UP THE PSEUDO- STATIONARY FRONT AS A COLD FRONT AND
MOVING TO SOUTHWARD. WITH THIS, LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION (30 TO 50 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 200. WHILE INITIALLY FALLING AS RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, A GENERAL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DRAGGED FURTHER
SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA, LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. ALSO OF NOTE, CAMS ARE
ADVERTISING A DECENT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAYS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT, NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY, REMAINING GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS CAA
INCREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A REBOUNDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL AGAIN PROMOTE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST POTENTIALLY PEAKING AS HIGH AS THE
LOWER 70S. WITH THIS, VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 TO
25 PERCENT. WHILE WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE COTEAU.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THAT SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR AT KMOT OR KXWA. LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN
THE EVENING, WILL TURN WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, STRONGEST IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 35 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED TO IMPACT KMOT TONIGHT, AS FORECAST WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE WEAKENED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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