204
FXUS63 KBIS 251448
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, QUICKLY FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING, WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
THURSDAY MORNING.
- INTERMITTENT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, MAINLY
TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A SHORT WINDOW OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. TO THE NORTH, AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE BURKE TO WARD
COUNTY AREA, WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AS WELL IN RENVILLE
COUNTY. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN FROM NDDOT WEBCAMS AND WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, COULD SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADS IN FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING,
INCLUDING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO
THE BISMARCK AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. PATCHY FOG IS FORMING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING FORTH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SO ONCE PRECIPITATION
MAKES IT'S WAY EASTWARD, FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING
RAIN RESULTING IN A LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS ELEVATED SURFACES. NOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDY WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH, THE THREAT FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER END AS THEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAIN
THIS MORNING AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE THE NORTH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. CAMS PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION BEING THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR STORMS. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DROP OUT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FRIDAY
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, THE WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY. THE PATTERN COULD BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING RETURNS TO WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HALF OF THE STATE. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE KMOT AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
FORTH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL BUT WILL CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING. SO FAR FOG HAS
STAYED NORTH OF KMOT. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR
KXWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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