761
FXUS63 KBIS 251757
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1257 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, QUICKLY FALLING TO
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- INTERMITTENT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, MAINLY
TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A SHORT WINDOW OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
STARTING TO SEE SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
NORHT DAKOTA AS A FEW EMBEDDED IMPULSES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, ALTHOUGH CLOUD BASES ARE HIGH ENOUGH NOT LIKELY THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND FOR A BIT.
STILL CARRYING MENTION OF THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ON THAT FRONT. OTHERWISE
STILL EXPECTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WITH GENERALLY RAIN SWITCHING TO SNOW, ALTHOUGH
COULD BE A NARROW WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
TRANSITION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF IT MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. TO THE NORTH, AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE BURKE TO WARD
COUNTY AREA, WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AS WELL IN RENVILLE
COUNTY. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE RAIN FROM NDDOT WEBCAMS AND WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, COULD SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS
ON ROADS IN FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING,
INCLUDING THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
RAIN CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MOVING INTO
THE BISMARCK AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. PATCHY FOG IS FORMING
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING FORTH RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SO ONCE PRECIPITATION
MAKES IT'S WAY EASTWARD, FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING
RAIN RESULTING IN A LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS ELEVATED SURFACES. NOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDY WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF WINDOW OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH, THE THREAT FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER END AS THEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAIN
THIS MORNING AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE THE NORTH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. CAMS PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION BEING THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR STORMS. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BELOW NORMAL IN THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. THERE COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
DROP OUT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FRIDAY
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WITH THESE CONDITIONS, THE WEEKEND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY. THE PATTERN COULD BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING RETURNS TO WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN THE KMOT AREA WITH LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND BECOME MORE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA, AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THIS EVENING AND EXPAND OVERNIGHT, WITH INITIALLY
RAIN EXPECTED, BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECTING A TRANSITION TO
LIGHT SNOW. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OUTSIDE OF ANY MAJOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCLUDING KMOT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JONES
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