985
FXUS63 KBIS 260106
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
806 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, THEN A WARMING TREND
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- INTERMITTENT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MUCAPE IS ANALYZED
TO BE AS HIGH AS 250 J/KG. BUT LIGHTNING WAS MORE PREVALENT
EARLIER IN THE DAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA, AND WOULD ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE TREND OF LIGHTNING BECOMING LESS COMMONLY
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EVENING, DESPITE THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF
100-200 J/KG MUCAPE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME
SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH WITH SHOWERS EARLIER IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS TOO IS BECOMING A LESS
COMMON OCCURRENCE.
AT 8 PM CDT, THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY LOCATED ALONG HIGHWAY
2. TRAILING THE FRONT IS A LARGE EXPANSE OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
THAT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER (EXCEPT
IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS ALREADY BEEN
IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY). EARLIER IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, THERE WERE SEVERAL AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA REPORTING FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DOES NOT MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF THE BORDER.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A COMPACT MESO-
LOW CROSSING THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MERIDIONAL DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO
THE SURFACE LOW TO SPARK SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT, THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY A NARROW RIBBON OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
SBCAPE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS THAT COULD ALLOW A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP, WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MESSAGE ANYTHING BEYOND
SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT THIS IS AN INTERESTING ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DOMINATED THE PATTERN ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FRONT IS
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, SCATTERED RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
AROUND 8K FEET ON TOP OF A VERY DRY NEAR-SURFACE LAYER ARE
PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM MAKING IT TO THE GROUND SO
FAR. THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX DOWN SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WE DO STILL HAVE A MENTION
OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL HAS
BEEN DECREASING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS, WITH
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES ARE SEASONABLY MILD ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY, WITH 60S SOUTH AND 30S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. WINDS
ARE BREEZY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS
FORECAST. WE ARE KEEPING A MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTY, BUT AT THIS
POINT THINKING THIS IS A SHORT WINDOW AND VERY BORDERLINE SINCE
THE WINDS HAVE NOT QUITE MATERIALIZED, AT LEAST CONSISTENTLY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH, WITH SOME LOW- AND MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALTHOUGH NO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FEATURES. POPS SPREAD WEST TO EAST AND ARE FAVORED RAIN THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT, AS THE COLDER AIR IS SLOW TO MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE STATE. CAMS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THERE IS
A BRIEF WINDOW WITH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF BEFORE THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW, BUT OVERALL NOT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS. PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. LOW SNOW CHANCES PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WEAK
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS ALSO
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD TO OUR WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT COOL, IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, WITH A MORE NOTICEABLE
IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE WIDESPREAD
50S AND 60S. LATEST NBM HAS A BIT OF A BREEZE EACH DAY, BUT NO
SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEING DOMINATED BY
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING, LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER, NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES HAVE QUITE A LARGE
SPREAD IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES (AT LEAST 20 DEGREES),
SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK, IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES FARTHER NORTH. THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A
COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 10-15 KTS AND BRING
MVFR CEILINGS TO MOST TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT CHANGING RAIN OVER
TO SNOW. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IS TO THE SOUTH OF KDIK, KBIS, AND KJMS.
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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