069
FXUS63 KBIS 261740
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH
POTENTIALLY RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY THEN A WARMING TREND BACK TO
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AND
TAKEN THE MAJORITY OF RADAR ECHOES WITH IT. WITH LOWER CEILINGS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, LIKE WE JUST SAW AT OUR OFFICE IN BISMARCK. UPSTREAM,
THE SECONDARY WAVE AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
GLASGOW, MT AREA, AND WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
THERE IS A NOTABLE BAND OF RADAR RETURNS. EVEN WITH LOW CLOUD
DECKS, THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF WHAT IS HAPPENING
UNDERNEATH THIS BAND, BEYOND AN NDAWN CAMERA SHOWING SOMEWHAT
REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL BAND MOVES OFF, WITH A LULL IN ANY
SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN LATER TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WEAK BANDED SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING. THE BAND IS MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH PRECIP
DROPPING DOWN SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. NO UPDATES ARE NEED TO
THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
FORTH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. A SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE REGION AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TAPERING OFF FOR BE A BIT BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH. PRESSURE
RISES WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SIT IN THE 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
TEENS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND FRIDAY CLOSER TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S NORTHEAST TO MID
40S SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S NORTH TO UPPER 60S
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND MID 40S NORTH TO MID 60S SUNDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY
BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING
RETURNS TO WESTERN CONUS. RIGHT NOW THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN WITH THE UPPER STREAM FAVORED TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE TAF PERIOD THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JONES
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