134
FXUS63 KBIS 261941
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
241 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH POTENTIALLY RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL MONTANA, SOUTH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS HAS BEEN ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MONTANA, WITH SNOW
OBSERVED IN THE GLASGOW AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER
VORT MAX AND SOME LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS SLIDES
EAST, CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WATCHING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, SNOW IS COMING IN
A BIT HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. WE DID NUDGE UP QPF AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IF
IT MAINTAINS FORCING. IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST, THIS AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT SEASONABLY COOL ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO
MID 60S SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM A DRIER AIR
MASS, BUT WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH, SHOULD KEEP A
LIMIT ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS STILL AT PLAY FOR NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST DOMINANT CLUSTER GROUP
FAVORS TROUGHING OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING,
LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH IS TYPICALLY OUR MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS CLUSTER GROUP IS ALSO THE WARMER OF THE
SOLUTIONS. THE REMAINING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE SPLIT
BETWEEN EITHER A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OR ALMOST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF THE THREE SCENARIOS.
THIS EXPLAINS THE EXTREMELY LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN NBM
PERCENTILES ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START APRIL. SPREAD THEN
INCREASES AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH CIPS
ANALOGS ALSO FAVORING A WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE TAF PERIOD THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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