601
FXUS63 KBIS 270521
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1221 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING, PERHAPS SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LIGHT SNOW IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR IN
THE FAR WEST. EXPECT CLEARING TREND TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SNOW HAS BECOME MUCH WEAKER OVERALL IN THE PAST 1 TO 3 HOURS,
AND THE SOUTHERN FLANK HAS COMPLETELY DIMINISHED. MEANWHILE, A
SEPARATE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING 700 MB
VORT MAX HAS ENTERED NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
EARLIER IN THE DAY DID SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE 2 DISTINCT
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING, WITH THE 2
SEPARATE AREAS POSSIBLY MERGING AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY, THEN MAY SHIFT INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
THE ONLY OTHER FORECAST ITEM OF NOTE THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND
NOW INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VISIBILITY AS BEEN ROUTINELY
REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS, BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME (LESS THAN ONE HOUR). RADAR SHOWS A BROADER AREA OF SNOW
WITH AN EMBEDDED NARROW BAND OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE
NORTH, WITH ONLY THE NARROWER BAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. WEBCAM IMAGERY SOUTH OF I-94 SUGGESTS
VISIBILITY IS NOT BEING IMPACTED AS MUCH THERE, AND THERE COULD
HAVE BEEN SOME RAIN MIXING ON ACCOUNT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MOST CAMS WANT TO DIMINISH THE NARROWER BAND THIS EVENING WHILE
MAINTAINING A BROADER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA, SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SNOW IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE,
SO WE WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INCREASING POPS OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD PICK UP A QUICK
INCH OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL MONTANA, SOUTH OF
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AN AREA OF LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS HAS BEEN ONGOING IN NORTHEAST MONTANA, WITH SNOW
OBSERVED IN THE GLASGOW AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER
VORT MAX AND SOME LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS THIS SLIDES
EAST, CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WATCHING UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, SNOW IS COMING IN
A BIT HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. WE DID NUDGE UP QPF AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IF
IT MAINTAINS FORCING. IF TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST, THIS AREA COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE PROGRESSIVE
WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT SEASONABLY COOL ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THESE TWO DAYS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO
MID 60S SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FROM A DRIER AIR
MASS, BUT WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH, SHOULD KEEP A
LIMIT ON ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS STILL AT PLAY FOR NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST DOMINANT CLUSTER GROUP
FAVORS TROUGHING OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING,
LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH IS TYPICALLY OUR MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS CLUSTER GROUP IS ALSO THE WARMER OF THE
SOLUTIONS. THE REMAINING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE SPLIT
BETWEEN EITHER A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OR ALMOST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS THE COLDEST OF THE THREE SCENARIOS.
THIS EXPLAINS THE EXTREMELY LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN NBM
PERCENTILES ON TUESDAY, BEFORE THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START APRIL. SPREAD THEN
INCREASES AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH CIPS
ANALOGS ALSO FAVORING A WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND TO BEGIN
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. AN IMPULSE IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL ND. AREAS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDS EXTEND THROUGH
WESTERN ND BUT ALSO EXPECT MVFR TO LOW VFR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OVER
WESTERN ND ALSO FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ONCE SKIES CLEAR AT ANY TAF SITE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WESTERLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, GENERALLY 10
TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AFT 00Z
SATURDAY. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME KDIK IS THE ONLY LOCATION WE ADDED LLWS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...TWH
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