534
FXUS63 KBIS 271438
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING CENTRAL AND
EAST, THEN SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
- THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
SEASONABLY MILD NORTH AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVERHEAD, AND
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT ALTHOUGH A BIT SEASONABLY COOL OF A DAY.
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER WESTERN ND WITH JUST A FEW AREAS
OF CLOUDS. A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL ND WITH A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL. WE DID ADD A MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND 14 UTC TO COVER THE PATCHES OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN ND. THIS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH MORE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. A SMALL BUT COMPACT SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MOST AREAS, BUT BELOW ZERO OVER
NORTHWEST ND. DEFINITELY ONE OF THE COLDER MORNINGS WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHILE.
WE WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON
MONDAY MAY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE.
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO REACH NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. IT WILL BE QUITE DRY
IN THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT. HOWEVER, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. STRONGER WINDS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AND ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES DO
NOT DROP TO LEVELS OF THOSE IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS HERE WILL BE IN THE MORNING
BEFORE WE REACH THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION, A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
RAISING HUMIDITIES LATE IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF LOW HUMIDITIES OVER SOUTHWEST ND BUT MORE LIKE 20 TO 15
PERCENT, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON
MONDAY WE DO SEE STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES AGAIN 25 TO 30 PERCENT, BUT INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS, BEGINNING IN THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, THE NBM IS DEPICTING A 20 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
CANADA. THEN PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OF SNOW DROP TO LESS THAN
10 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH. MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE COOL OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
REGARDING THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES. A CLUSTER ANALYSIS CENTERED
ON WED-THU AND THU-FRIDAY SHOWS TWO BASIC SCENARIOS, BUT WITH
NUANCES BETWEEN THEN. IN SIMPLE TERMS, THERE LOOKS TO BE A
COLDER/FASTER SCENARIO WITH LESS OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW, AND A
WARMER/SLOWER SCENARIO THAT SHOWS MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW. BOTH
BRING QPF INTO THE LOCAL AREA, SO AT THIS TIME THERE ISN'T A
CLEAR CUT WET/DRY SCENARIO. BOTH FAVOR HIGHER QPF AND SNOW
TOTALS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO
CANADA. WITH THE GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE WEEKEND,
THIS MAKES SENSE REGARDING THE SNOW TOTALS. WPC IS CURRENTLY
INDICATING A 5-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS IN
THE THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. AGAIN, A NOD
TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
A MORE OF A BROADER VIEW OF THE ENSEMBLE SURFACE PRESSURES AND
SURFACE LOW POSITIONS INDICATES A WIDE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS IN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS. A LOOK
AT THE 50H FEATURES SHOWS THAT THIS IS IN GENERAL A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WHICH COULD ACT TO SLOW THE SYSTEM, THERE IS ALSO AN
INDICATION OF RAPIDLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGING, AS WELL AS
SOME SPLIT FLOW CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO EVOLVE
INTO A STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. IT'S CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR. THE NBM ENSEMBLE 48 HOUR
SNOW TOTALS FOR BISMARCK SHOW MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF LOW SNOW
TOTALS OF >1 AND >2 INCHES, BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES OF MORE IMPRESSIVE TOTALS OF >8 AND >12, THUS
THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW
TOTALS. SO WE CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE THIS OUT, THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, AS OF YET THERE IS NOTHING OF REAL
CONCERN SHOWING UP ON THE ECMWF EFI OVER OUR AREA REGARDING
STRONG WINDS OR QPF/SNOW TOTALS. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FLURRIES OVER THE
AREA THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING, THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY
AND SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN ND AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 MPH OVER CENTRAL ND TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH, THEN SOUTHERLY
THIS EVENING. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ALSO DEVELOPS
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM
MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH AROUND 12Z SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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