883
FXUS63 KBIS 271740
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO SEASONABLY MILD NORTH AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO START THE
AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL A BIT OF A BREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST,
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO WARM, WITH THE TEENS
NORTH CENTRAL TO MAINLY 20S ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THE
REST OF THE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVERHEAD, AND
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT ALTHOUGH A BIT SEASONABLY COOL OF A DAY.
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER WESTERN ND WITH JUST A FEW AREAS
OF CLOUDS. A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL ND WITH A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL. WE DID ADD A MENTION SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH AROUND 14 UTC TO COVER THE PATCHES OF FLURRIES OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A LOW AMPLITUDE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN ND. THIS IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH MORE ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO CENTRAL ND. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. A SMALL BUT COMPACT SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MOST AREAS, BUT BELOW ZERO OVER
NORTHWEST ND. DEFINITELY ONE OF THE COLDER MORNINGS WE HAVE SEEN
IN A WHILE.
WE WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON
MONDAY MAY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE.
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO REACH NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. IT WILL BE QUITE DRY
IN THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT. HOWEVER, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. STRONGER WINDS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AND ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES DO
NOT DROP TO LEVELS OF THOSE IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS HERE WILL BE IN THE MORNING
BEFORE WE REACH THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION, A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
RAISING HUMIDITIES LATE IN THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF LOW HUMIDITIES OVER SOUTHWEST ND BUT MORE LIKE 20 TO 15
PERCENT, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ON
MONDAY WE DO SEE STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES AGAIN 25 TO 30 PERCENT, BUT INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS, BEGINNING IN THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY, THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION PRECIP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, THE NBM IS DEPICTING A 20 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
CANADA. THEN PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OF SNOW DROP TO LESS THAN
10 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH. MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS WE COOL OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
REGARDING THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES. A CLUSTER ANALYSIS CENTERED
ON WED-THU AND THU-FRIDAY SHOWS TWO BASIC SCENARIOS, BUT WITH
NUANCES BETWEEN THEN. IN SIMPLE TERMS, THERE LOOKS TO BE A
COLDER/FASTER SCENARIO WITH LESS OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW, AND A
WARMER/SLOWER SCENARIO THAT SHOWS MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW. BOTH
BRING QPF INTO THE LOCAL AREA, SO AT THIS TIME THERE ISN'T A
CLEAR CUT WET/DRY SCENARIO. BOTH FAVOR HIGHER QPF AND SNOW
TOTALS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO
CANADA. WITH THE GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE WEEKEND,
THIS MAKES SENSE REGARDING THE SNOW TOTALS. WPC IS CURRENTLY
INDICATING A 5-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS IN
THE THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. AGAIN, A NOD
TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
A MORE OF A BROADER VIEW OF THE ENSEMBLE SURFACE PRESSURES AND
SURFACE LOW POSITIONS INDICATES A WIDE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS IN
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS. A LOOK
AT THE 50H FEATURES SHOWS THAT THIS IS IN GENERAL A PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WHICH COULD ACT TO SLOW THE SYSTEM, THERE IS ALSO AN
INDICATION OF RAPIDLY APPROACHING UPSTREAM RIDGING, AS WELL AS
SOME SPLIT FLOW CHARACTERISTICS. THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME IT
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO EVOLVE
INTO A STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRAVERSES THE PLAINS. IT'S CERTAINLY
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR. THE NBM ENSEMBLE 48 HOUR
SNOW TOTALS FOR BISMARCK SHOW MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF LOW SNOW
TOTALS OF >1 AND >2 INCHES, BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES OF MORE IMPRESSIVE TOTALS OF >8 AND >12, THUS
THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW
TOTALS. SO WE CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE THIS OUT, THIS FAR IN ADVANCE
OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, AS OF YET THERE IS NOTHING OF REAL
CONCERN SHOWING UP ON THE ECMWF EFI OVER OUR AREA REGARDING
STRONG WINDS OR QPF/SNOW TOTALS. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO START AHEAD OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS LLWS AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY TONIGHT,
STRONGEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING AND SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JONES
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