902
FXUS63 KBIS 271954
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
- THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY MILD NORTH AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST.
- AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING OVER THE
DAKOTAS UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN UPPER LOW PLACED
OVER THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS HAS LED TO A QUIET WEATHER
DAY AFTER SOME FLURRIES THIS MORNING, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A
TOUCH OF A BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS
STILL SEASONABLY COOL IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM, WITH 20
UTC TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S NORTH AND EAST TO THE 30S SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL, WITH SOME LOWER 40S ALONG THE MONTANA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDERS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT, BUT
OTHERWISE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN IS INCREASING WINDS FROM A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM HIGHS
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE TEMPORAL OVERLAP BETWEEN
THE STRONGEST WINDS (MORNING) AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(AFTERNOON) IS NOT FAVORABLE, BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE BLENDED IN SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION DEW
POINTS, WHICH LOWERED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE LOWER
TEENS FAR SOUTHWEST TO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TO THE WEST, WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER
WHICH IS WHY THERE IS LESS CONCERN THERE, BUT TO THE EAST, THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL BE BREEZY TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SUSTAINED UP TO 25 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE WINDS DIMINISH ON SATURDAY, SHOULD BE A QUIET AND MILD DAY,
ALTHOUGH A PASSING VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE 40S NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS WIL BRIEFLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY, WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TO SATURDAY, AHEAD OF A MORE PRONOUNCED IMPULSE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES START SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. P-TYPE WILL BE A BIT TRICKY BUT IS GENERALLY FAVORING
SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST
PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY LOW CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY BUT IS MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN. FORECAST HIGHS
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, BUT START TO REBOUND
QUICKLY FOR WEDNESDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN BRINGING A MORE
NOTABLE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL MODEST SPREAD IN NBM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILES, EVEN THE
25TH PERCENTILE HAS MAX TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, SO THE SYSTEM OVERALL HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE WARMER. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, IT STILL DOES NOT
LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE, AND THOSE TEMPERATURES
WOULD FAVOR RAIN VS. SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS, WITH A FEW
NBM MEMBERS STILL ADVERTISING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE ECMWF EFI CONTINUES TO FAVOR ANOMALOUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES, SO WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY LOOK NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO START AHEAD OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS LLWS AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY TONIGHT,
STRONGEST IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING AND SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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