451
FXUS63 KBIS 281439
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
939 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM SEASONABLY MILD
NORTH TO UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK BUT
SHARP COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN
NORTH AND CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
- A LATE WEEK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE BELOW FOR FURTHER
DISCUSSION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND BLENDED CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TO MID
MORNING VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A VERY BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TODAY WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RATHER TRANQUIL
WEATHER PATTERN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THIS WEEKEND.
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES NORTH TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER...WE BLENDED OUR GIVEN DEW POINT
GUIDANCE WITH SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TO BETTER
REPRESENT THE LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TYPICAL DURING
THESE LOW MOISTURE SCENARIOS, BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.
TODAY THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN, THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST ND. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A MENTION OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO START TO DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING THEN
REALLY DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY, THEN
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGHS, AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 4-5 PM. BY THIS TIME, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE
SHIFTED WESTERLY AND DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT FROM THE MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WE STILL MAY SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AROUND MIDDAY AS HUMIDITIES ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN
AND WINDS HAVE YET TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY. RATES OF SPREAD
ARE HIGHEST IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS IS
ALSO WHEN WE SEE SOME POTENTIAL RED FLAG HOURS IN PORTIONS OF
DICKEY COUNTY. FOR THE TIME BEING, AS IT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY
TO WINDY, WE WILL LEAVE THE FOUR COUNTIES OF DICKEY, LAMOURE,
LOGAN AND MCINTOSH IN THE NEAR CRITICAL CATEGORY. WE'LL PASS
THIS TO THE DAY SHIFT AND THEY CAN ADJUST IF THESE TRENDS HOLD.
IN THE SOUTHWEST WE ARE EXPECTING VERY LOW HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO
20 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AS THEY
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, TO NORTHEAST BY
EARLY EVENING. THE LOW WIND SPEEDS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BELOW NEAR CRITICAL VALUES.
SUNDAY THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT. AT
THIS TIME WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS THEY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST IN
THE MORNING TO NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING, BUT AT THIS TIME THE WIND COMPONENT LOOKS TO BE
LACKING TO REACH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
MONDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A WARM DAY IN THE SOUTH, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCE LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AGAIN, BUT THERE ARE TOO MANY
UNCERTAINTIES IN PLAY AT THIS TIME TO MENTION NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SEE A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. INITIALLY WE SEE THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AND POSSIBLE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, THEN EVENTUALLY THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE PUSH OF
WARM AIR, WHICH MAY KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
CANADA, BUT MAY ALSO RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, IF THE WARM AIR
MAKES IT FARTHER NORTH. IF NOT, WE COULD SEE SOME DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER. CURRENTLY THE LATEST NBM
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL (WILLIAMS TO PIERCE, AND
NORTH) AND MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW FROM BURKE AND NORTHERN MOUNTRAIL EAST ACROSS RENVILLE AND
NORTHERN WARD AND NORTHEAST TO BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 4 OR MORE INCHES IN PORTIONS OF
BOTTINEAU AND ROLETTE COUNTIES. ALL OF THESE ARE 24 HOUR
PROBABILITIES VALID LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO LOW PROBABILITIES OF SOME FREEZING RAIN
OVER THESE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL. AREAS FROM THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH WILL
SEE A QUICK DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS WITH LITTLE OR NO
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN, DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS
YOU GET INTO SOUTHERN ND, AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR MAY
SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND THE NBM 1D VIEWER IS SHOWING A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS A BIT DISORGANIZED AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS. A LOT OF THE UNCERTAINTY LOOKS TO
BE IF IT WILL BE MORE OF A NORTHERN SYSTEM, A SOUTHERN SYSTEM OR
SOMETHING IN-BETWEEN. AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IN
GENERAL. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, WHEN LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW POSITIONS, THERE
REMAINS A LARGE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE HIGH PLAINS. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALSO WEAKENS AS
IT EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS, PROBABLY A RESULT OF THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN A NORTHERN, SOUTHERN OR SPLIT SOLUTION. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR QPF, THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES BOTH SHOW
A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
LIQUID, BUT A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A HALF INCH OR MORE OF QPF.
WITH THE WARMTH OF THIS SYSTEM THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
TOTALS LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME. YESTERDAY AT BISMARCK THERE
WERE SOME LOW PROBABILITIES OF 48 HOUR SNOW TOTALS >8 AND >12
INCHES. THESE HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED, AND THE PROBABILITIES
FOR 48 HOUR SNOW TOTALS OF >2 AND >4 INCHES HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO
LOW PROBABILITIES. WE ARE STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT SO WE WILL SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE MORE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, ALBEIT OVER A PRETTY SMALL
AREA, THAN WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 12Z
FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS AT KJMS
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, LASTING THROUGH AROUND 15 UTC. THERE WILL
BE A SLOW BUT DELIBERATE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO BEGIN THE TAF
PERIOD, TO WEST THEN NORTH AND EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG THIS MORNING OVER THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, INCLUDING KJMS, THEN DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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