939
FXUS63 KBIS 290313
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1013 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM SEASONABLY MILD
NORTH TO UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK BUT
SHARP COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW (POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN)
NORTH AND CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
- A LATE WEEK SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH QUIET WEATHER AND PASSING
CLOUDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CURRENTLY, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
RESULTS IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. AN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SIMILAR WEATHER FOR
TOMORROW FORECAST AS TODAY.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY, COUPLED WITH PERCENT AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN THE HWO WITH
THIS FORECAST ITERATION.
FOR TOMORROW, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATE SOUTHWEST WHERE
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING AS CURRENT FORECAST WIND
MAGNITUDES (WHEN COUPLED WITH FORECAST RH) APPROACH NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS AND MAY AGAIN WARRANT ELEVATED
MESSAGING.
S/WV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
INITIALLY WARM ADVECTION PRECIP AND POSSIBLE BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM, MAINLY REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPES. REGARDLESS, LATEST NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOW
MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR QPF ACROSS NORTHERN ND, WHERE A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW (LOW PROBS OF 4") WILL BE POSSIBLE. MIXED
PRECIPITATION ( FREEZING RAIN) IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
WE CONTINUE TO ALSO MONITOR A MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM WHICH MAY
BRING WEATHER IMPACTS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY
WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...JJS
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