975
FXUS63 KBIS 132048
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
348 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE
FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FAR
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DRYING OUT TUESDAY,
WARM WEDNESDAY, THEN A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE MT/ID BORDER WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING FROM WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT. SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST
WY INTO SOUTHEAST MT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EAST
NORTHEAST, EXPECT THIS ENVIRONMENT TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SPC HAS ISSUED A MCD FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD INTO
SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTHEAST WY. THE PROBLEM IS, THE FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST YOU GO, THE MORE STABLE THE ENVIRONMENT. WE EXPECT
CONVECTION, SOME STRONG, WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST ND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR CAN IT PROGRESS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, CHARACTERIZED BY A MORE STABLE LOWER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE HIGH
BASED CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
AS WE THEN GO THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH EAST
CENTRAL ND. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT, AS THE PRECIPITATION LIFTS INTO NORTHEAST
ND, THERE IT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF MIXED PRECIP AROUND THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME THE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION, BUT A LITTLE
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY SURFACES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
FOR THE MOST PART WARMING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. OUR GIVEN NBM GUIDANCE GAVE US SEVERAL HOURS OF
SPLOTCHY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY OVER WESTERN ND. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. WE OPTED TO INCLUDE A BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING, WE COULD SEE SLIGHT CHANCES PROPAGATE
INTO CENTRAL ND. FOR NOW WE WILL LIMIT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MILD. WE COULD SEE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST ND
BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC DROPS SOUTH AND MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BY THURSDAY THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ENERGY IN THIS UPPER TROUGH SPLITS WITH A PIECE TRACKING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AND ANOTHER TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. CURRENT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY SUGGEST A 30
DEGREE OR SO DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE FAR NORTH
(MID TO UPPER 40S) AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY (MID TO
UPPER 70S). SHOULD WE REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ON THURSDAY, WE COULD SEE A PERIOD LOW HUMIDITIES, POSSIBLY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN JRV. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN TOO STRONG DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WE
WILL SEE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY RAIN INITIALLY,
THEN CHANGING TO SNOW. WITH THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH QPF WE SEE. RIGHT NOW,
THE NBM 24 HOUR PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS LOW ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. WHETHER THAT FALLS AS RAIN, SNOW
OR A MIX, IMPACTS FROM QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LOW. THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF STRONG WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM, FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORKWEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHEN SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE FOUND, BUT OVERALL,
EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DO
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND SOUTH, THEN MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EXPECT AN
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS, TURNING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS ON TUESDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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