903
FXUS63 KBIS 140830
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
330 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECPITATION EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY AND WARMER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MEDIUM
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE REMNANTS OF PRECPITATION OVERNIGHT CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE INCITING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THIS MORNING.
WHILE STILL MAINLY FALLING AS LIGHT RAIN, SOME SNOW MAY BECOME
MIXED INTO THIS IS PRECPITATION IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA AS
COOLER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG LINGERS BEHIND THE
RAIN, THOUGH BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THROUGH THE MID MORNING. LOWS ARE BROADLY IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
NEAR ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE / CLOSED LOW
CROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
NUDGE THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER AND FURTHER NORTH
OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, SKIMMING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECPITATION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING REVEALS A FAIRLY DRY LAYER NEAR SURFACE LAYER
THAN ANY PRECPITATION THAT DOES FORM WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME,
THUS HAVE OPTED TO LIMIT PRECPITATION TO A VERY LOW CHANCE (<20
PERCENT). OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MIGHT
BE A LITTLE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH TODAY COMPARED TO THE
NORTH AND FAR WEST WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES, FORECAST BROADLY IN THE
MID 50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
PEAKING WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TURN INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW MAKES IT WAY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS LOW COMPLEX INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, A FAIRLY STARK GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
UP TO THE MID 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. CHANCES FOR
PRECPITATION WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, BECOMING LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL
TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY RAIN THURSDAY TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL
SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW COMPLEX DIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHEN AND WHERE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, WITH A
SLIGHT MAJORITY OF CLUSTERS (55 PERCENT) FAVORING A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR A GREATER AMOUNT OF
THE PRECPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO FALL DURING THE
COOLEST PERIOD OF THE NIGHT. WITH THIS, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, THOUGH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A MINORITY CLUSTER (45 PERCENT) FAVORS
A SLIGHTLY QUICKER LOW, ALLOWING FOR THE BULK OF PRECPITATION
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH TO FALL MAINLY AS RAIN. IN THIS
SCENARIO, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD MAINLY BE LIMITED TO
THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. IN EITHER SCENARIO, THIS SNOW ISN'T
EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL, OR LAST ON THE GROUND VERY LONG AT
ALL. OTHERWISE, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE WINDS BEING GRADIENT DRIVEN, WE
DON'T EXPECT THESE WINDS TO BE OVERLY IMPACTFUL, PERHAPS NEAR
ADVISORY AT BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THIS THINKING
IS BACKED BY THE LACK OF ANY HIGHLIGHT IN THE EFI DURING THIS
PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S CAN BE ANTICIPATED BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BEFORE A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL HELP WARMING TEMPERATURES RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE ON TIMING, RESULTING
IN A 15 TO 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
ALL CLUSTERS APPEAR TO RESOLVE IN A BRIEF BLOCKING PATTERN
SETTING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS, DRY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO
BE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VARIABLE CEILINGS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE LOW STRATUS GENERALLY
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AT MOST TERMINALS,
AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAVE PROMOTED
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR TO EVEN VFR CEILINGS ON THEIR ONSET AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE. AS SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT,
A RAPID RETURN TO LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE ANTICIPATED, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS BACK TO
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, TURNING OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT TO THE WEST
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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