081
FXUS63 KBIS 142047
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
347 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
- DRY AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- TURNING COLDER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A DIGGING WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, STRATUS HAS CLEARED IN THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO
ERODE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. AFTERNOON CU HAS DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN ND HOWEVER. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW AND NARROW REGION OF
INSTABILITY SO THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND ANY WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY QPF
REACHING THE GROUND.
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
AN VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
NOT A LOT OF WIND BY NORTH DAKOTA STANDARDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHWEST ND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY, THEN TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MONDAK REGION AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOW PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY WITH
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE
MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP DURING THE
DAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EAST. THERE ARE SOME (MAINLY) CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND FAR
NORTH THURSDAY BUT ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
A CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE'S A 60/40 SPLIT BETWEEN A
MORE COMPACT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA VERSUS A
SPLIT WAVE WITH BETTER ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT BOTH SOLUTIONS WILL BRING SNOW.
IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE
LIMITED ENOUGH THAT QPF IS PRETTY LIGHT WITH A BROAD SWATH OF
0.10 TO 0.15 FROM SOUTHWEST ND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
ND. THE MORE COMPACT WAVE WOULD YIELD A MORE WIDESPREAD SWATH OF
QPF, BUT OVERALL THE DIFFERING IMPACTS BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. OUR LATEST NBM GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH OF SNOW EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND, WITH LOW TO
VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE. THIS IS THE 24 HOUR
PROBABILITY ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. TWO INCH PROBABILITIES THEN
TAPER TO LOW FOR THIS SAME AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, SO MOST WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT WILL BREEZY TO WINDY AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL ND, SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE WE DO SEE THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WINDS WITH FREEZING SURFACES.
ONCE THE SNOW ENDS ON FRIDAY THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SATURDAY MORNING LOWS POSSIBLY INTO THE
TEENS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. WE DO BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM-UP SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
IFR CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. KDIK
HAS JUST CLEARED FROM THE LOW STRATUS. FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH KMOT
AND KJMS HOLDING ON TO THE STRATUS LONGER. KBIS AND KXWA SHOULD
CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE STRATUS CLEARS,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING KJMS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE KJMS TAF. AN ISOLATED EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS TOO
ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SURFACE FLOW VARIABLE FROM WESTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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