977
FXUS63 KBIS 150350
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1050 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- DRY AND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED LATE
THIS EVENING, BUT THE AREAL FOOTPRINT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS HAS
ACTUALLY EXPANDED INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, REACHING ALL THE
WAY TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE BROADER AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS LIES IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS DIRECTLY UNDER A
500 MB SHORTWAVE. ASIDE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH
IS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE FORECAST
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS AS NEEDED, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN
A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT MOST AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA,
WITH A STEADY INCREASING TREND IN COVERAGE SINCE LATE AFTERNOON.
AT 6 PM MDT, THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
AT THE NORTHERN END OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE FROM AROUND BEACH TO
KILLDEER, AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND RICHARDTON TO
HETTINGER. THE NORTHERN SHOWERS HAVE ACCESS TO HIGHER MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG, AND VERY INFREQUENT LIGHTNING IS BEING
DETECTED WITH THESE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT THE BASE OF THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE
COULD PROLONG SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A DIGGING WESTERN U.S TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, STRATUS HAS CLEARED IN THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO
ERODE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. AFTERNOON CU HAS DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN ND HOWEVER. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW AND NARROW REGION OF
INSTABILITY SO THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND ANY WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY QPF
REACHING THE GROUND.
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
AN VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
NOT A LOT OF WIND BY NORTH DAKOTA STANDARDS.
THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRINGING THE INITIAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHWEST ND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY, THEN TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE MONDAK REGION AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOW PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY WITH
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A VERY TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO THE
MID 70S FAR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE PICKING UP DURING THE
DAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EAST. THERE ARE SOME (MAINLY) CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND FAR
NORTH THURSDAY BUT ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE MORE THAN A TRACE, MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
A CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE'S A 60/40 SPLIT BETWEEN A
MORE COMPACT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA VERSUS A
SPLIT WAVE WITH BETTER ENERGY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT BOTH SOLUTIONS WILL BRING SNOW.
IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE ARE
LIMITED ENOUGH THAT QPF IS PRETTY LIGHT WITH A BROAD SWATH OF
0.10 TO 0.15 FROM SOUTHWEST ND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
ND. THE MORE COMPACT WAVE WOULD YIELD A MORE WIDESPREAD SWATH OF
QPF, BUT OVERALL THE DIFFERING IMPACTS BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. OUR LATEST NBM GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH OF SNOW EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND, WITH LOW TO
VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE. THIS IS THE 24 HOUR
PROBABILITY ENDING AT 18Z FRIDAY. TWO INCH PROBABILITIES THEN
TAPER TO LOW FOR THIS SAME AREA. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, SO MOST WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IT WILL BREEZY TO WINDY AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL ND, SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHERE WE DO SEE THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WINDS WITH FREEZING SURFACES.
ONCE THE SNOW ENDS ON FRIDAY THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SATURDAY MORNING LOWS POSSIBLY INTO THE
TEENS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. WE DO BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM-UP SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KJMS AND SURROUNDING AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT, BUT NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AROUND 10-15 KTS. SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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