305
FXUS63 KBIS 150806
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MID MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY TODAY, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING HAS HELPED PROPAGATE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAIN WHERE IT OVERLAPS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, AS WELL AS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. LOWS ARE FROM
THE MID 30S EAST TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEST AND CENTRAL.
NEAR ZONAL TO INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A CLOSED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITH THIS PATTERN HIGHS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FROM THE MID 60S
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACH LOW COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH. LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECPITATION (10 TO 30 PERCENT) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT,
AS A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EJECTING OFF THIS TROUGH SLIDES UP
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH, TO LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
BY MID MORNING THURSDAY, THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING TO BECOME LIKELY (50 TO 75 PERCENT)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL) LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WHILE DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH THE LINGERING WARMTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL INITIALLY AS RAIN, BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVERNIGHT TO A
RAIN-SNOW MIX, THEN ALL SNOW, AS TEMPERATURES DROP. WITH SHORT
TERM CAMS STARING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENSEMBLE, THE NBM HAS
DIALED INTO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS WHOLE,
ALLOWING FOR LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS APPEARS
TO BE THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH HAS RAMIFICATION ON OVERALL QPF AND THUS
OVERALL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF MEMBERS (55
PERCENT) FAVOR A SHALLOWER TROUGH, WHILE WOULD HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TO AROUND A
DUSTING AT MOST, UP TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO IN THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. A MINORITY CLUSTER ALSO EXISTS (45 PERCENT OF MEMBERS),
WHICH ADVERTISES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER OR CLOSE TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR SOUTH
AS I- 94 TO EXCEED AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IS HIGHER (30 TO 50
PERCENT), WHILE PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL COULD EXCEED 2
INCHES OVERALL (15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE). IN EITHER SCENARIO,
OVERALL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TIGHTENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW COMPLEX, THOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SORT OF WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD
REMAINS VERY LOW. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WELL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S ARE FORECAST.
WARMING AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
MONDAY. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT AT THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY
THE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING TIMING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL AS
PRECPITATION MUST FALL THROUGH A SIGNIFICANTLY DRY LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE TO MID MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTIONS AT KXWA AT THIS TIME. WINDS AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING TO AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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