917
FXUS63 KBIS 151803
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TODAY, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN EASTWARD MOVING LINE OF ISOLATED RADAR ECHOES IS PRESENT
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IS
PRESENT OFF THE SURFACE, WHILE CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
RETURNS ARE AROUND 10 KFT. THEREFORE, OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED. IN THEIR WAKE, PATCHY FOG
HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AN INTERROGATION OF BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT THIS FOG IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY
SHALLOW. FOG IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE MID
MORNING AS THE SUN RISES AND THE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING HAS HELPED PROPAGATE LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAIN WHERE IT OVERLAPS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY, AS WELL AS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. LOWS ARE FROM
THE MID 30S EAST TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WEST AND CENTRAL.
NEAR ZONAL TO INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A CLOSED PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITH THIS PATTERN HIGHS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FROM THE MID 60S
NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACH LOW COMPLEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH. LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECPITATION (10 TO 30 PERCENT) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT,
AS A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EJECTING OFF THIS TROUGH SLIDES UP
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH, TO LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTH.
BY MID MORNING THURSDAY, THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING TO BECOME LIKELY (50 TO 75 PERCENT)
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL) LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DELAYED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WHILE DROPPING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WITH THE LINGERING WARMTH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, PRECPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL INITIALLY AS RAIN, BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVERNIGHT TO A
RAIN-SNOW MIX, THEN ALL SNOW, AS TEMPERATURES DROP. WITH SHORT
TERM CAMS STARING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENSEMBLE, THE NBM HAS
DIALED INTO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS WHOLE,
ALLOWING FOR LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS APPEARS
TO BE THE RELATIVE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH HAS RAMIFICATION ON OVERALL QPF AND THUS
OVERALL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF MEMBERS (55
PERCENT) FAVOR A SHALLOWER TROUGH, WHILE WOULD HELP LIMIT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TO AROUND A
DUSTING AT MOST, UP TO AROUND AN INCH OR SO IN THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL. A MINORITY CLUSTER ALSO EXISTS (45 PERCENT OF MEMBERS),
WHICH ADVERTISES A SLIGHTLY DEEPER OR CLOSE TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS FAR SOUTH
AS I- 94 TO EXCEED AN INCH OF SNOWFALL IS HIGHER (30 TO 50
PERCENT), WHILE PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL COULD EXCEED 2
INCHES OVERALL (15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE). IN EITHER SCENARIO,
OVERALL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TIGHTENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW COMPLEX, THOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SORT OF WIND HEADLINES DURING THIS PERIOD
REMAINS VERY LOW. WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WELL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S ARE FORECAST.
WARMING AND DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY
MONDAY. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT AT THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY
THE MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING TIMING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE
STATE. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY ENCROACH INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING, WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KXWA WILL BE
IMPACTED (COVERED USING A PROB30 FOR NOW). KMOT COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY LOW AT THE
MOMENT. PRECIPITATION MAY THEN PASS ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE,
THOUGH THIS WINTRY MIX IS NOT FAVORED TO IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. A FEW HOURS OF LLWS IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE KBIS TAF FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...TELKEN
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