862
FXUS63 KBIS 151938
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TODAY, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
- BREEZY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDY FRIDAY.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. OTHERWISE, UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT, WAA OFF ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST
AND IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. LATER IN THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN,
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
A COLD SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL BEGIN PASSING THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THREE PRIMARY THINGS. FIRST, BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. SECOND, A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MUCH COLDER THAN THOSE
NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER (EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LARGEST
GRADIENT SETS UP IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST). AND THIRD,
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING IN THE WEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY, THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING MOSTLY TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL, SNOW TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A DUSTING IN ALL BUT NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. NBM PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST AN INCH ARE AROUND
20 TO 40 PERCENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, THOUGH A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SETTING UP ISN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION. ALL IN ALL, EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER WHICH, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S, THOUGH MORE IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND MORE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS, ON THE OTHER HANDS, WILL RANGE BE
MOSTLY IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN
COOLER AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP TO START NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY MONDAY, AND LOWS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE
STATE. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY ENCROACH INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING, WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT KXWA WILL BE
IMPACTED (COVERED USING A PROB30 FOR NOW). KMOT COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY LOW AT THE
MOMENT. PRECIPITATION MAY THEN PASS ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE,
THOUGH THIS WINTRY MIX IS NOT FAVORED TO IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
THURSDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. A FEW HOURS OF LLWS IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE WINDS SWITCH TO A
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE KBIS TAF FOR NOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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