713
FXUS63 KBIS 160625
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE STATE.
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.
- BREEZY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDY FRIDAY.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY COVER A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK.
AREA OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUD BASES RATHER
HIGH, BUT STILL SEEING SOME REPORTS OF MOISTURE REACHING THE
SURFACE. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A WINTRY MIX FAR NORTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND ALSO PRECIP CHANCES
JUST A BIT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE, LIMITING LIKELY POPS TO RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE BORDER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BUT QPF
LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF THIS
TREND HOLDS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSMITTED SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE STATE. MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. OTHERWISE, UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT, WAA OFF ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST
AND IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. LATER IN THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN,
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
A COLD SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL BEGIN PASSING THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THREE PRIMARY THINGS. FIRST, BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS. SECOND, A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MUCH COLDER THAN THOSE
NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER (EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE LARGEST
GRADIENT SETS UP IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST). AND THIRD,
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY STARTING IN THE WEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY, THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START MOSTLY AS RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING MOSTLY TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERALL, SNOW TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A DUSTING IN ALL BUT NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. NBM PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST AN INCH ARE AROUND
20 TO 40 PERCENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, THOUGH A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SETTING UP ISN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION. ALL IN ALL, EXPECTING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER WHICH, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S, THOUGH MORE IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY AND MORE IN
THE 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS, ON THE OTHER HANDS, WILL RANGE BE
MOSTLY IN THE 20S ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN
COOLER AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY NIGHT. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN ON TAP TO START NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BY MONDAY, AND LOWS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL, NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MAY IMPACT
KXWA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING AT
ALL TERMINALS, WITH A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AS WELL, AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH, BOTH
BECOMING GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHERLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH, WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY TO 25 KNOTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...NH
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