895
FXUS63 KBIS 161115
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST.
- BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN WINDY ON FRIDAY.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
MODIFIED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE, OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS IN DECENT SHAPE FOR THIS MORNING. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CURRENTLY, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, AND A
LARGE/DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LEAD EMBEDDED IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA TO ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN IN ND, SNOW IS BEING OBSERVED
AT TIMES FAR NORTH AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE AS WELL FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING GIVEN WARM/ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND BELOW FREEZING SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 20S.
THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIFT INTO CANADA BY
15Z OR SO WITH THE MID LEVEL FORCING. AFTERWARDS, THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY, WITH THE BASE DIGGING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MORPHING INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BY
THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST MT, SCOOTS
EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA TODAY, WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT COLDER IN THE 30S AND 40S NORTH, AND MUCH WARMER
AHEAD OF THE FROPA IN THE 70S FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
JAMES VALLEY OF ND WHERE MIN RH DROPS TO ~25%, TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 80F, AND WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
THIS EVENING, WHILE A 700MB TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL ND. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTING BY ALL GUIDANCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
THOUGH DIVQ FORCING IS LACKING. HOWEVER, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST, WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION RIDING OVER THE 700MB TROUGH AFTER 00Z. THIS
COMBINATION WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
INITIALLY STARTING IN THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
RAPIDLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN, THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR IS PULLED SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING OVERALL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET FORCING, DESPITE LACKING A DECENT DIVQ SIGNAL, MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS. NBM PROBS OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW RANGE 40 TO 60 PERCENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WITH 10 PERCENT OR LESS
CHANCES FOR 4 INCHES. STILL CAN'T ENTIRELY DISCOUNT A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW SETTING UP.
WITH THE STRONG FORCING, SPC ALSO EXPANDED THE GENERAL T-STORM
AREA INTO PARTS OF THE STATE FOR LATER TODAY/EVENING. MAKES
SENSE GIVEN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOW OVER NORTHEAST MT.
UPPER TROUGH/SPLIT FLOW PATTERN MIGRATES EAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BUT TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING WELL BELOW NORMAL (HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 30S AND HIGHS
SAT IN THE 30S AND 40S).
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN BRINGING MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST, CAN'T RULE OUT
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WITH ANY WAVE THAT MAY MOVE
THROUGH.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED TO END THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER, WITH ENSEMBLES
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OR UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING, WHERE MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND MAY IMPACT KXWA AND
KMOT. WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS THEN DEVELOP THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS, AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
BRINGS RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION. GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH, BOTH BECOMING GUSTY
UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, WITH WINDS
REMAINING GUSTY TO 25 KNOTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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