369
FXUS63 KBIS 161953
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
253 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. DURING
THE TRANSITION, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET, MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) OF SEEING 2 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW OVER A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND BISMARCK-STEELE TO
AROUND HARVEY-CARRINGTON.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN, WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS ALL IS PLACING US IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVER OUR AREA, A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS WITH
COLD AIR WRAPPING IN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW, AND QUITE MILD
TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND
RATHER LOW HUMIDITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
FOR TONIGHT, TROUGH CONTINUES ITS APPROACH WITH COLD AIR POURING
INTO THE AREA, WHILE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY ALONG AN
AREA OF NOTABLY ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA.
MOST LOCATIONS START OUT AS RAIN (EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN COLD
LOCATIONS) WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION WHERE
DURING THAT TRANSITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO BRING AWARENESS TO THIS, BUT GIVEN THE
QUESTION ON HOW LONG THIS COULD LAST WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AT A LATER TIME. AS FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LINE WHERE THE
GREATEST AND LONGER LASTING AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IS NOTED.
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA GENERALLY FROM
BISMARCK-STEELE NORTHEASTWARD TO HARVEY-CARRINGTON WITH AROUND A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH OR MORE, AND AROUND A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING TWO INCHES. SOME SNOW MAY LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST.
NOTABLY COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S. THIS COLDER AIR
THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AS RIDGING OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS PUSHES EAST, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY, HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING THE KJMS TERMINAL.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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