596
FXUS63 KBIS 170217
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
917 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN OR SNOW THIS EVENING TRANSITION TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. DURING THE TRANSITION, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET, MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGION.
- MEDIUM CHANCES (40 TO 60 PERCENT) OF SEEING 2 OR MORE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND BISMARCK-STEELE TO AROUND
HARVEY-CARRINGTON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 839 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WE INITIALLY EXTENDED THE SPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE IN THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. AFTER SOME OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS STARTED ARRIVING WE ENDED UP ISSUING A
SMALL, SHORT DURATION WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
THE COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BURLEIGH, SHERIDAN, KIDDER,
WELLS, FOSTER AND STUTSMAN. FOSTER AND STUTSMAN WERE SEPARATED
OUT FOR LESSER SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND AN INCH) AND
POSSIBLY MORE ICE ACCUMULATION (LIGHT GLAZE TO 0.05"). BURLEIGH,
KIDDER, SHERIDAN AND WELLS HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK IN SNOW.
GENERALLY STILL 1-3 INCHES. HOWEVER, A SMALLER AREA, CURRENTLY
EASTERN BURLEIGH AND SHERIDAN INTO WESTERN WELLS AND KIDDER
COUNTIES COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 4 INCHES.
NOT SURE ABOUT IF WE SEE THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND IF THIS
IS THE AREA THAT EVENTUALLY SEES THEM. BUT WE ARE PRETTY SURE
THAT IF WE DO SEE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY ENOUGH TONIGHT,
THERE IS ENOUGH VERY STRONG FG FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND. THE 12Z HREF WAS SHOWING
SOME LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL RATES GREATER
THAN AN INCH AN HOUR FROM AROUND 06-10 UTC OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ND. THE WPC SNOWBAND PROBABILITY TRACKER WAS ALSO HITTING THIS
AREA FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME. GIVEN
THE STRONG WINDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING, THE BLOWING SNOW MODEL IS
INDICATING SOME MODERATE IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WHEN THE
HEAVY SNOW COMBINES WITH THE STRONG WINDS.
THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE A
CONCERN. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO TURN TO SNOW BUT SURFACE AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT WHERE WE DO NOT SEE THE
HEAVY SNOW RATES, SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO ACCUMULATE. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG OR
EVEN MODERATE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE
UNORGANIZED. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP TO BEGIN WITH, BUT TAPER
PRETTY QUICKLY AS THE THE COLD AIR BUILDS OVER THE AREA. IMPACTS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12 UTC. PORTIONS OF THE I-94 AND HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDORS COULD BE IMPACTED AND WITH THE REAL NICE WEATHER OF
LATE, WE FIGURED WE WOULD GO AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT BY THE WEEKEND THE SNOW WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT, A FEW MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. PERHAPS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS WORKING IT'S WAY INTO
NORTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL ND. THE MAIN SURGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN SD AND EASTERN WY AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR THE
EARLY EVENING UPDATE WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER LOWER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ND. WE ALSO DELAYED THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN, WITH LOW CLOSING OFF OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA
INTO NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS ALL IS PLACING US IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. OVER OUR AREA, A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS WITH
COLD AIR WRAPPING IN NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW, AND QUITE MILD
TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND EAST. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND
RATHER LOW HUMIDITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
FOR TONIGHT, TROUGH CONTINUES ITS APPROACH WITH COLD AIR POURING
INTO THE AREA, WHILE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MAINLY ALONG AN
AREA OF NOTABLY ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA.
MOST LOCATIONS START OUT AS RAIN (EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN COLD
LOCATIONS) WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION WHERE
DURING THAT TRANSITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO BRING AWARENESS TO THIS, BUT GIVEN THE
QUESTION ON HOW LONG THIS COULD LAST WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL RE-EVALUATE AT A LATER TIME. AS FOR
SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LINE WHERE THE
GREATEST AND LONGER LASTING AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IS NOTED.
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA GENERALLY FROM
BISMARCK-STEELE NORTHEASTWARD TO HARVEY-CARRINGTON WITH AROUND A
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH OR MORE, AND AROUND A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING TWO INCHES. SOME SNOW MAY LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST.
NOTABLY COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S. THIS COLDER AIR
THEN SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AS RIDGING OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS PUSHES EAST, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY, HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED. DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION, AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING
RAIN TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING THE KJMS TERMINAL.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH IMPROVING
CEILINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ022-023-
025-035>037.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
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