085
FXUS63 KBIS 170934
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
434 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(50 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SEEING 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER A
CORRIDOR FROM AROUND BISMARCK-STEELE TO AROUND HARVEY-
CARRINGTON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S. WINDY AS WELL TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
40 MPH AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CURRENTLY, SPLIT FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS BROUGHT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING,
AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT THIS TIME, FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEASTERN ND. COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG FG WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST, BY AROUND MID MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
TOTAL SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2-3 INCHES, WITH
SOME HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH ONGOING
SNOWFALL, WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS WITH
THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW AND NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA, WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO PORTIONS OF MY NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THEREAFTER, THE MID
LEVEL LOW AND OVERALL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SATURDAY, WITH LATEST MODEL
ITERATIONS SHOWING EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH, GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. NBM HASN'T REALLY CAUGHT ONTO
THIS YET, SO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW FOR SAT IS DRY. ANTICIPATE
NBM POPS TO INCREASE IF CURRENT MODEL TREND HOLD. CONTINUED
BREEZY SAT (EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE), WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN BRINGING
MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST.
AFTER MID-WEEK, AN ACTIVE/COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN
FAVORED TO END THE WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING RAIN TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING THE KJMS
TERMINAL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING WEST TO EAST,
WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH DECREASING WINDS, THOUGH STILL BREEZY EAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ022-
023-025-035>037.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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