086
FXUS63 KBIS 171450
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
950 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES
(50 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SEEING 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW OVER A
CORRIDOR FROM AROUND BISMARCK-STEELE TO AROUND HARVEY-
CARRINGTON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S. WINDY AS WELL TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
40 MPH AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT BROUGHT SNOW THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL BRING WRAP AROUND SNOW
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND LOW STRATUS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP AS THE DRY SLOT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
TRIMMED OFF BURLEIGH AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SNOW HAVING ENDED. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HEADLINES ELSEWHERE FOR NOW.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF CENTRAL AND EAST AS LOW LEVEL
FORCING DECREASES AND/OR PUSHES EAST. WRAP AROUND SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING, ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS
IN FUTURE WEATHER UPDATES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
CURRENTLY, SPLIT FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM CUTOFF LOW OVER FAR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS BROUGHT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING,
AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT THIS TIME, FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEASTERN ND. COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG FG WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST, BY AROUND MID MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
TOTAL SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2-3 INCHES, WITH
SOME HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH ONGOING
SNOWFALL, WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS WITH
THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE.
ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW AND NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA, WILL DEVELOP EAST INTO PORTIONS OF MY NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THEREAFTER, THE MID
LEVEL LOW AND OVERALL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PROPAGATES EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS TODAY, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
RESULTING IN A BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SATURDAY, WITH LATEST MODEL
ITERATIONS SHOWING EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING THROUGH, GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. NBM HASN'T REALLY CAUGHT ONTO
THIS YET, SO THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW FOR SAT IS DRY. ANTICIPATE
NBM POPS TO INCREASE IF CURRENT MODEL TREND HOLD. CONTINUED
BREEZY SAT (EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE), WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN BRINGING
MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST.
AFTER MID-WEEK, AN ACTIVE/COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN
FAVORED TO END THE WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AT KJMS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW REDUCING
VIS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KXWA WHERE WRAP AROUND SNOW AND CLOUDS
HAS MOVED INTO. VFR AT THE MOMENT ELSEWHERE. THE WRAP AROUND
SNOW AND LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING, LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY
TODAY, THEN DECREASING TONIGHT, THOUGH STILL BREEZY EAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON/NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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