080
FXUS63 KBIS 171956
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
256 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S. WINDY AS WELL TODAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES MOVE EASTWARD. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH AS THE INITIAL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM THE MIXED
LAYER DRIVEN BY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING
IN A COLDER AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND. TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN EMBED SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AS THE
SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE JET STREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE,
BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS
AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO 20S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PATTERN
CHANGE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO 70S MONDAY AND 70S TO 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE FROM 83 TO
90 FOR KBIS WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AFTER WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST
ENSEMBLES HAVE BROAD TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. CSU AND NSSL MACHINE DO HAVE SOME MACHINE LEARNING
PROBS FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS CONTINUE TO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. WIND GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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