121
FXUS63 KBIS 180254
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
20S.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MINIMAL UPDATES AGAIN NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
WITH A FEW FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AT TIMES, WHILE CLEARING
SKIES ARE FOUND IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH,
YET COULD REMAIN BREEZY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHER
THAN A FEW MINOR SKY AND POP CHANGES THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. LINGERING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOR A
FEW AREAS WHILE SOME OTHERS ARE STARTING TO SEE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AS A
RESULT. AREAS WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH A FEW SITES NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THESE WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET,
THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES MOVE EASTWARD. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH AS THE INITIAL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM THE MIXED
LAYER DRIVEN BY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING
IN A COLDER AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND. TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN EMBED SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AS THE
SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE JET STREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE,
BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS
AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO 20S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PATTERN
CHANGE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO 70S MONDAY AND 70S TO 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE FROM 83 TO
90 FOR KBIS WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AFTER WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST
ENSEMBLES HAVE BROAD TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. CSU AND NSSL MACHINE DO HAVE SOME MACHINE LEARNING
PROBS FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LOW CLOUDS COULD BRING SOME MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SOME SITES COULD STILL SEE SOME FEW TO SCT LOWER CLOUDS AT THESE
SAME MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS. ANY SITES WITH LOWER CLOUDS COULD
ALSO SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES. SATURDAY WILL SEE A MIX OF SCT TO
BKN TO PERHAPS OVC CLOUDS AT TIMES. CEILINGS FOR THESE CLOUDS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR ALTHOUGH COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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