374
FXUS63 KBIS 180638
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
138 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MAIN EDIT TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO SKY GRIDS, TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLEAR CONDITIONS WEST AND CENTRAL, AND DECREASING
CLOUDS OVER MY EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED, AND MAINLY
LET THE AUTO UPDATE PROCEDURE ADJUST OVERNIGHT LOWS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MINIMAL UPDATES AGAIN NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LOWER
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
WITH A FEW FLURRIES BEING REPORTED AT TIMES, WHILE CLEARING
SKIES ARE FOUND IN THE WEST. WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH,
YET COULD REMAIN BREEZY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHER
THAN A FEW MINOR SKY AND POP CHANGES THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. LINGERING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO BRING SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING FOR A
FEW AREAS WHILE SOME OTHERS ARE STARTING TO SEE CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AS A
RESULT. AREAS WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH A FEW SITES NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL. THESE WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET,
THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES MOVE EASTWARD. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH AS THE INITIAL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM THE MIXED
LAYER DRIVEN BY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING
IN A COLDER AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND. TONIGHT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH AN EMBED SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AS THE
SHORTWAVE TRANSITS THE JET STREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE,
BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS
AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO 20S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PATTERN
CHANGE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO 70S MONDAY AND 70S TO 80S
BY WEDNESDAY. THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE FROM 83 TO
90 FOR KBIS WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AFTER WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST
ENSEMBLES HAVE BROAD TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. CSU AND NSSL MACHINE DO HAVE SOME MACHINE LEARNING
PROBS FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
AN AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, IMPACTING KJMS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE TRENDING SKC BY AROUND 08Z. CLEAR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ND. SATURDAY WILL SEE A MIX
OF SCT TO BKN TO PERHAPS OVC CLOUDS AT TIMES. CEILINGS FOR THESE
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR ALTHOUGH COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT
TIMES. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO TAFS FOR THIS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY, DECREASING
SAT EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...NH
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