230
FXUS63 KBIS 181337
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
837 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (20-40 PERCENT
CHANCE) DURING THE DAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CURRENTLY, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MOST SITES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. A
FEW SITES OUT WEST ARE ACTUALLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM SETTING
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS CALENDAR DATE!
WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EMBEDDED WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
AND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, ALONG WITH LEFT-EXIT REGION JET
FORCING MOVING OVER A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS WELL, WITH STILL 25-30 KNOTS WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER AVAILABLE AS WE WARM. SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY
HELP IN BRINGING SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY TRANSITIONS TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RAMPING UP THE WARMING TREND AND RESULTING
IN A DRY WEATHER FORECAST. WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY,
WHEN BROAD RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SPINS UP ON
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE
FORECAST. AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES
WED INTO WED NIGHT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE DAKOTAS. LATEST NBM/WPC DOESN'T HAVE THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS BEING ADDED IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
AN ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND CHANCES FOR SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ND TO BEGIN THE
12Z PERIOD. TODAY WILL SEE A MIX OF SCT TO BKN TO PERHAPS OVC
CLOUDS AT TIMES. CEILINGS FOR THESE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
ALTHOUGH COULD LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. WILL KEEP A
PROB30 GROUP IN THE TAFS FOR THIS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY, DECREASING TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page