384
FXUS63 KBIS 181747
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS (20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED AFTER WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
DIURNAL CU IS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS FORCING AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BRIEF
YET VERY STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE. SEE BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CURRENTLY, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LONG WAVE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MOST SITES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. A
FEW SITES OUT WEST ARE ACTUALLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM SETTING
RECORD LOWS FOR THIS CALENDAR DATE!
WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 10-15
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EMBEDDED WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
AND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, ALONG WITH LEFT-EXIT REGION JET
FORCING MOVING OVER A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
MUCAPE TO RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS WELL, WITH STILL 25-30 KNOTS WITHIN THE
MIXED LAYER AVAILABLE AS WE WARM. SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY
HELP IN BRINGING SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY TRANSITIONS TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RAMPING UP THE WARMING TREND AND RESULTING
IN A DRY WEATHER FORECAST. WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY,
WHEN BROAD RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SPINS UP ON
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE
FORECAST. AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND INCREASES
WED INTO WED NIGHT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE DAKOTAS. LATEST NBM/WPC DOESN'T HAVE THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS BEING ADDED IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
AN ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND CHANCES FOR SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
GENERALLY SPEAKING, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MUCH STRONGER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR. WITH INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE, EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SKIES TO CLEAR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TELKEN
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