626
FXUS63 KBIS 181853
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
153 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CURRENTLY, THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL ALSO LIFT
NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF SAID UPPER LOW, AND FORCING OFF
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INCOMING JET STREAK; ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHEAST,
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LOOSENING. THEREFORE, DON'T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GRADIENT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD MIXING DAY,
WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
MORE SO, THESE SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERTED
V PROFILE, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BRIEF, YET VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO PASS THROUGH AN AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ONCE ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, SAID INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. AS SUCH,
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S. LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY EVEN SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE TEENS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, A TRANSITORY RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THAT SAID, NBM
FORECAST HIGHS ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE, THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO OVERPERFORM.
MODELS ARE THEN PEGGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND THURSDAY AS WELL TO A LESSER EXTENT.
HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FORECAST
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IT SEEMS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE WHERE MUCH MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. NEVERTHELESS, IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
GENERALLY SPEAKING, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MUCH STRONGER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY OCCUR. WITH INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE, EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND SKIES TO CLEAR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page