340
FXUS63 KBIS 190623
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
123 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TOPS.
EMBEDDED WAVE TRIGGERING THIS ACTIVITY AND AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MN THROUGH SUNDAY AM, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN EDIT WAS TO SKY
AND POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD STILL BRING A FEW ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH FOR THE MOST PART, ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOWERS COULD STILL BRING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT STILL
LOOK TO BE COOL AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. OVERALL THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
WEAK WAVE AND FAVORABLE JET STREAK. THESE SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION IMPACTS. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH, WHICH MAY
ALSO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES
THIS EVENING BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN COOL AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CURRENTLY, THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW POSITIONED OVER ONTARIO THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WILL ALSO LIFT
NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO NORTH DAKOTA LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF SAID UPPER LOW, AND FORCING OFF
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN INCOMING JET STREAK; ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHEAST,
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE LOOSENING. THEREFORE, DON'T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GRADIENT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A GOOD MIXING DAY,
WHICH HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
MORE SO, THESE SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERTED
V PROFILE, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BRIEF, YET VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO PASS THROUGH AN AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ONCE ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, SAID INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. AS SUCH,
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ON TAP WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S. LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY EVEN SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE TEENS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, A TRANSITORY RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THAT SAID, NBM
FORECAST HIGHS ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE, THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO OVERPERFORM.
MODELS ARE THEN PEGGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND THURSDAY AS WELL TO A LESSER EXTENT.
HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FORECAST
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IT SEEMS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE WHERE MUCH MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. NEVERTHELESS, IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MFVR CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WILL
PUSH SOUTH NOW THROUGH 09Z, TRENDING SKY COVER FEW-SKC. MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z PERIOD
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, BECOMING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE AS WELL SUNDAY
NIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...NH
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