431
FXUS63 KBIS 191123
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THEREAFTER, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
WITH A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION,
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE DAY. THERE
WERE NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CURRENTLY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS TAPERING
OFF AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. COUPLED WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY, TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE AGAIN, DROPPING INTO THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S MOST PLACES. SOME MORNING FOG AS WELL
NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, THOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
WIND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A TAD WARMER WEST, WHERE BETTER RETURN FLOW AND SOME
WAA WILL BE. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, RAMPING UP THE WARMING TREND AND RESULTING IN A DRY
WEATHER FORECAST. WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY,
WHEN BROAD RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS, AND
RESULTS IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE
FORECAST, WITH 70S ELSEWHERE. AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES WED AFT INTO WED NIGHT, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES LIKELY NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AXIS.
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS THEN FAVORED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MORPH INTO A CLOSED LOW
ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUS AN
ACTIVE/WET AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL END THE WORK WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE FORECAST FRI-SUN, AND LOWS THIS WEEKEND IN THE 20S ARE
LIKELY. GIVEN THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND THE EXPECTED
SUBFREEZING AIR ALOFT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS,
CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAIN MIXING WITH AND TURNING INTO MAINLY
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI AM, WITH MAINLY SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. DEFINITELY TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANY
SNOW/WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE IMPACTS, AS MUCH CAN CHANGE OVER
THE COMING DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 12Z PERIOD ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING, BECOMING MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TONIGHT. SOME
LLWS POSSIBLE AS WELL TONIGHT, BUT FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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