760
FXUS63 KBIS 191944
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
244 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN FAVORED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE NORTHERN PLAINS WERE PLACED BETWEEN A HUDSON
BAY LOW AND A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA,
WITH UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
SUNSHINE INCREASES TO THE WEST, WITH A BIT OF A BREEZE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM MIXING AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO THE UPPER 50S FAR WEST.
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AND WE BEGIN TO
WARM UP IN EARNEST TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH BREEZY TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN ON MONDAY IS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHERE THERE IS THE MOST
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. LOWER HUMIDITY EXISTS
IN THE SOUTHWEST, BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THIS AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S, WITH SOME PASSING CLOUDS FROM AN IMPULSE TO OUR
NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP FURTHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE DEEP LOW MOVES
ONSHORE TO THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS PEAK ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S FAR SOUTH, ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC
NBM IS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE, SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
THE FORECAST HIGHS KEEP INCREASING IN FUTURE RUNS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
TROUGH EJECTING OVER THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
QUICKLY INCREASING FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ADVERTISING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONGER STORMS. CSU AND NSSL
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE BOTH HIGHLIGHT A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF
INCREASED PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF AND TRACKS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON
THURSDAY, BLENDED POPS ARE ALREADY SHOWING WIDESPREAD 60 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE, WITH HIGHS
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE FRONT GETS
TO FIRST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER
60S SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE OVERALL SETUP AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW, IT IS NO
SURPRISE THAT THE ECMWF EFI IS ALREADY ADVERTISING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS, WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESSON LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR ANOTHER CLOSED LOW TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH LOWS IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY MORNING, AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, AND
WITH LOW POPS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SNOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE SNOW IS BROADLY
40 TO 60 PERCENT NORTH AND WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES STAY COLDER,
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF NEW ACCUMULATION.
WINDS STAY ELEVATED ON SATURDAY BUT DIMINISH FURTHER ON SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK SEASONABLY COOL IN THE 40S. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW VFR CUMULUS ARE ONGOING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. LLWS WAS INCLUDED AT KBIS AND KMOT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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