689
FXUS63 KBIS 032351
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
STARTING TO DROP IN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SETTLING
IN OVER OUR NORTH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG GRADIENT WINDS, ENHANCED
BY GOOD MIXING AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT, THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE LOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING MOISTER AIR, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
MAINTAINING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE, AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S WITH THE COOLEST DAY TUESDAY, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30. DRIER AIR BRINGING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 20S WILL
ALSO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED HIT OR
MISS SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR TUESDAY,
INFLUENCE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL WANE, YET DECENT
MIXING COULD STILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS MENTIONED, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEST CONUS RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP ENABLE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY, CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS ARE NEAR AVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE
ALSO FAVORED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERALL IS
REASONABLY HIGH WITH NBM 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I94. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I94. AFTER WHICH, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE AS A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS BACK
INTO THE 20S. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, YET MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS ONLY FAVORED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO TODAY DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DAY OF
GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS. WINDS WILL THEN
DROP OFF RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS, DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S,
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...TELKEN
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