278
FXUS63 KBIS 040538
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1238 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY.
- COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE NOW,
GUSTING WINDS NEAR 50 MPH BRIEFLY. THE SECONDARY FRONT IS IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE POP FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR
AND TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE, HAVE ADDED RAIN CHANCES FOR LATER
TONIGHT WHEN A SECONDARY LINE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA PER LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO BLANKETED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY AS WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER OUR NORTHWEST WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
STARTING TO DROP IN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS SETTLING
IN OVER OUR NORTH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG GRADIENT WINDS, ENHANCED
BY GOOD MIXING AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY COMPONENT, THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE LOW WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING MOISTER AIR, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
MAINTAINING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE, AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S WITH THE COOLEST DAY TUESDAY, AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO
AROUND 30. DRIER AIR BRINGING DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 20S WILL
ALSO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED HIT OR
MISS SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR TUESDAY,
INFLUENCE FROM AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL WANE, YET DECENT
MIXING COULD STILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AS MENTIONED, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEST CONUS RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL HELP ENABLE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. BY THURSDAY, CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS ARE NEAR AVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS ARE
ALSO FAVORED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERALL IS
REASONABLY HIGH WITH NBM 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SPREADS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CIGS AND BREEZY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTING NEAR 30KTS, CALMING IN THE LATE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO TODAY DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, ANOTHER DAY OF
GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REGARDLESS. WINDS WILL THEN
DROP OFF RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS, DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS TO 20S,
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
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