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FXUS63 KBIS 041359
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
859 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TODAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW, AND MOST
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH. THE BISMARCK AIRPORT ASOS DID REPORT A BRIEF GUST OF 45
MPH THE LAST HOUR. HOWEVER, NONE OF SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS
PICKED UP ON IT SO IT MUST HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOCALIZED. STILL
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH THE
BEST PRESSURE RISES AND STRONGEST CAA HAVING ALREADY PASSED
THROUGH, THICK LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ADVECTING SOUTH, AND A PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT SHOULD WEAKEN TO SOME DEGREE; CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MEDIUM IN REGARD TO WINDS REACHING THEIR PEAK POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
MOST OF THE RAIN ON RADAR IN THE SOUTHWEST DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
REACHING THE GROUND YET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ONLY AROUND 45
PERCENT AND CLOUD BASES ARE AT 8000 FEET. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. THERE ARE TWO COLD FRONTS EXTENDING OFF THIS LOW
PRESSURE, ONE THAT HAS ALREADY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE, AND
ANOTHER CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRST FRONT
GUSTED WINDS TO 50 MPH FOR A SHORT PERIOD, THE SECOND HAS LIGHT
RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WAS ADDED TO THE
CURRENT NBM FORECAST. THE SECOND FRONT IS ALSO CREATING GUSTY
WINDS, BUT ONLY TO AROUND 30 MPH.
TODAY WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL BREEZY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
POST FRONTAL AIR TO BE IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR
SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST, GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH.
WINDS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME MODELS HAVE STRONG WINDS GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH,
AND OTHERS DON'T. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE HAPPENING NOW, ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE. WE WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE WINDS DO END UP STRONGER
THAN FORECAST. THERE IS STILL SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY
WITH THE WINDS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT.
SO WE WILL MAINTAIN THE NEAR-CRITICAL WORDING, PAY ATTENTION TO
YOUR LOCAL BURN RESTRICTIONS. UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SCATTERED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, WE COVERED OUR AREA IN A BROAD SLIGHT
CHANCE (20%) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK WE WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY FORCE
THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR TO SHIFT EAST. THIS IN TURN
WILL WARM OUR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY THIS WEEKEND WE WILL BE
BACK ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CIGS AND BREEZY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS IN THE
NORTH WILL BE LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
GUSTING NEAR 30KTS, CALMING IN THE LATE EVENING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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