263
FXUS63 KBIS 041932
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
232 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- WINDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING. FOR
THE MOST PART, MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER, THERE ARE PERIODS WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS ARE SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
MOSTLY RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I94.
IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WOULD MOSTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, THOUGH SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN AS WELL.
HOWEVER, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN DIRECT INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW WANING. WITH DRY
AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AND A LOSS OF GOOD CYCLONIC FORCING, THE
PROBABILITY OF SEEING ANYTHING MEASURABLE OVERNIGHT REMAINS
LOW.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOWS INTO THE
20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH
APPROACHES BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHICH, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
A WEST CONUS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD
TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. THIS FAVORS A WARMING TREND TOWARDS
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND LOWS
MOSTLY RETURNING TO ABOVE FREEZING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL, THOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE RAPIDLY BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS, MOSTLY AS RAIN, BUT
PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN, ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART, CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT POCKETS OF
MVFR CEILINGS. ESPECIALLY SHOULD ANY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OCCUR.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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