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FXUS63 KBIS 051132
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND
EAST LOOK TO BE LESS NOW BASED ON THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME CAMS THAT HAVE THESE SHOWERS IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST, CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED. AS OF NOW, DID NOT
ADJUST THE GOING POP FORECAST, AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CURRENTLY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS IS LEADING TO A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
MONTANA TO MICHIGAN. THE WEST COAST IS SPLIT BY 2 DIFFERENT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS; A HIGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
AND A LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS IN EASTERN MONTANA TO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AS THAT
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO FILTER IN COOLER AIR. WITH A SOMEWHAT
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE, TODAY WILL BE BREEZY
AGAIN BUT NOT A STRONG AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, WE ADDED A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE AGAIN. THERE IS DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 SO WE DID NOT ADD THOSE POPS TO THE WEST.
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK THAT RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST, PUSHING THIS LOW
PRESSURE EAST. THIS WILL IN TURN WARM TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND. THE NBM IS FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE
TEMPERATURE RANGES THAT WE WILL BE IN THE 60S OR 70S IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE, VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. THIS WEEKEND COULD SEE SOME RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST
FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONTANA AND WYOMING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON TO 15
TO 25 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND CALMING AFTER SUNSET. THERE
IS ANOTHER VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SMITH
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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